Year of the Linux Desktop (Again)
The Year of the Linux Desktop has been predicted by somebody every year since the late 1990s. And each time, it is closer to being right–the number of Linux desktop, laptop, and mobile device users does grow healthily each year.
But since the prediction is not clearly defined (do the authors mean that Linux will gain majority marketshare, or do they just think the rate of growth will increase, and are they talking about the USA, Europe, developing world or globally, and which hardware platforms are they considering?), we’ll never see a year in which everyone’s interpretation of this phrase’s meaning is satisfactorily met. But that doesn’t matter, since Linux’s presence is felt more and more strongly all the time. And as new markets are invented, it starts with a stronger presence in each one (consider web tablets, where Nokia’s Maemo platform is setting the pace, and where the Microsoft-backed UMPC effort simply failed).
Maximum PC has published 2008: Year of the Linux Desktop, which covers some important points. Two in particular stand out as major milestones:
“Dell has consistently made headlines with its new Ubuntu-powered PC line. Now four models strong and selling for $50 less than their Windows-equipped counterparts, these PCs come preloaded with all necessary drivers, and offer consumers the same assurances of usability and support that they could reasonably expect from a Windows machine…”
“Outside of North America, we find even more dramatic signs of a coming shift in the userbase. Just this week, yet another state in India declared that it would no longer buy Windows systems, but would switch to Linux instead, spelling vast potential savings for the government and touting potential benefits to education for the populus.”
The tipping point will be reached at different times in different geographical markets and product spaces. Keep an eye on the margins now, to see what will be bubbling up into the mainstream next. Corporate America will probably be the last to adapt in this area, so what they are doing hardly matters today (if your interest is in predicting future trends).